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Modest optimism for the metals market. from 11 to 18 July 2022


What pleases me now is that the fall in prices in most markets has stopped, we have optimism, although so far very modest. This gives us a breather to soberly assess the situation and move on. Gradual activity begins in the market, buyers begin to replenish their stocks with what they need. Not yet in those quantities, but already there. I should note that many companies still have very large reserves that still need to be balanced, which is what they are doing now. The main rule is that the warehouse should always be balanced, in such a market there simply should not be excess stocks. There must be a turnover of the warehouse, which must be monitored daily.

As I thought and what I wrote about, the price of scrap metal is growing steadily and has reached the level of $405 per 1 ton and will push up prices for all groups of metals. What is happening now and what I see. I took into account the minimum scrap price of $320 that was on the market. And the market as a whole already shows that we are approaching 440-460 dollars per 1 ton.

For hot-rolled coil, the price increase has not yet been significant, but there is already evidence of this in the Asian market from the minimum price of $620, by the end of the week the price rose to $650. This is the first call to pay attention to. So far, only the US market is still under buying pressure, but by the end of July, I think it will line up with all markets. Since the rise in prices for raw materials exerts its pressure. Metallurgists have already started testing prices for hot-rolled coil in many markets and are monitoring the reaction of buyers.

What I expect from prices next week:

Hot-rolled coil for the European market - 820-840 US dollars.
Hot-rolled coil in the Asian market - 660-680 dollars.
Hot rolled coil in the US market - 860-900 dollars.

And once again I want to remind you that for buyers there is a personal system of allowances and discounts from all manufacturers.

The most interesting things are ahead of us when we learn from the Fed about their plans for lending rates in the near future.

Then everything can change dramatically, both in one direction and in the other.

We will watch.

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